Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9216f95e2e7ea27b3cbff39997fdf6b65c2ca77bad7b1a117296732d2069b0e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 784.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 73c | 581.57$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 442.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 404.18$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.26 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 48c | 288.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.88 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 271.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 204.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 184.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 45c | 182.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 143.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 134.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 132.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 122.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 121$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 115$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 101.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 94.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 92.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 75.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 48c | 75.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 72.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…2129backed Yes | 40c | 67.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 67.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 66.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 55.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 28c | 54.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 38c | 49.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 48.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 43.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 78c | 42.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 49c | 40.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…f744backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 17.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 59c | 17.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 70c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.