Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6e8eba914fa40ef4f12dc8a837a67b92e37000d5364ba2e38aaa105f7410d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 333.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 36c | 303.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 40c | 270.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 25c | 225.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 202.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 193.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 139.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 38c | 132.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 123.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 110.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 109.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 106.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 103.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 103.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 74c | 88.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 29c | 85.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 36c | 84.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 76.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 75.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 69c | 71.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 69.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 32c | 67.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 58.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 33c | 56.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 52.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 70c | 47.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 47.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 47.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 46.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 38.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 35c | 35.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 36c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 33.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed No | 65c | 28.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…049ebacked No | 77c | 26.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 63c | 25.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 68c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 63c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 63c | 16.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.