Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x921b32530b58ff290f2830706acd7df4ed3dd443df17fa960bea33024e4a71fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,488 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1823…be60backed Yes | 28c | 934.25$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 696.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 648.4$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 605.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 15c | 573.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.51 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 22c | 541.1$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…8b05backed No | 78c | 369.11$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 18c | 325.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.88 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 261.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.83 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 22c | 227.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.98 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 224.25$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 215.54$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 209.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 8c | 202.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.1 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 18c | 192.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.98 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 170.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 166.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…d703backed No | 50c | 163.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 139.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 18c | 136.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 133.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 130.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 120.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 105.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 29c | 101.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 19c | 101.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 15c | 96.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 41c | 94.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 24c | 83.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 17c | 77.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 16c | 70.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…ca21backed Yes | 25c | 70.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…0987backed Yes | 35c | 69.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 69.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 31c | 67.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 65.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 30c | 65.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…3425backed Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yes | 27c | 56.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 39.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 56c | 38.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 38.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…7244backed Yes | 79c | 34.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26b…cbeabacked Yes | 56c | 32.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 27.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…854bbacked No | 80c | 18.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 10°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.