Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nõmme Kalju FC win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924a2a21d342c670f6deb0eff655355af3a9f36e5258d0a9fdd23b279ff0c5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 17c | 38,119$6,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,646.46 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 11c | 8,712$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.35 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 5,972$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.78 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 9c | 4,358$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.87 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.41 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 4c | 3,960$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 13c | 3,688$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.18 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 2,521$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,508$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.62 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 12c | 2,471$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.75 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 52c | 2,086$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.24 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 1,622$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.3 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 12c | 1,006$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 10c | 838.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 10c | 798.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 11c | 449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 16c | 305$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 12c | 258.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…4870backed Yes | 10c | 178.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 75c | 162$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 9c | 159.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 11c | 117.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 96.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 14c | 87.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nõmme Kalju FC win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will Shelbourne FC vs. Nõmme Kalju FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.