Tennis · resolved market
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9250072aae7ad902362cb3dc3a38aecc55fd8e6358f627a5e4fbdb73f6631149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nick Hardtof Carlos Maria Zarate, Nick Hardt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 17c | 3,600$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.81 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 17c | 3,104$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.41 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 6c | 2,199$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 3c | 1,842$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 21c | 1,290$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.27 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 16c | 1,243$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 17c | 1,170$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 20c | 1,102$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.86 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…cf78backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 18c | 1,101$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 31.5%35 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…e2e9backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 15c | 652.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 15c | 628.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 3c | 544$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 213 | 17.4%37 W · 176 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…a3f9backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 8c | 524.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…61a0backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 22c | 509.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | +27.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 22c | 446.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 13c | 423.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 421 | 25.7%108 W · 313 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 18c | 359.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 525 | 57%299 W · 226 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 14c | 313.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 19c | 283.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 14c | 278.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9c…f77dbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 6c | 268.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 15c | 262.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 19c | 218.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Nick Hardt | 78c | 204$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 17c | 188.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…a9a7backed Carlos Maria Zarate | 18c | 161.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Nick Hardt | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nick Hardt | 79c | 126.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Nick Hardt | 77c | 110.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Nick Hardt | 78c | 86.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc01…7b7abacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 17c | 66.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Nick Hardt | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Nick Hardt | 79c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Nick Hardt | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 312 | 20.5%64 W · 248 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Carlos Maria Zarate | 20c | 57.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Nick Hardt | 79c | 50.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Nick Hardt | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Nick Hardt | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Nick Hardt | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.