Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x925cf8bb8dcc639b65a7220206f0239c1a45bd4e0860596f6332a9e7e9abc222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 57c | 519.64$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 495.48$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 56c | 442.59$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 277.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 246.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 241.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 210.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 24c | 206.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 178.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 32c | 159.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 149.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 146.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 130.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 128.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 119.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 117.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 117.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…a1eabacked Yes | 40c | 113.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 54c | 101.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 101.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…7f1abacked Yes | 40c | 90.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 90.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 80.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 76.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 68.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 41c | 60.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 59.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 71c | 58.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 52.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 46.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 43c | 45.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 42c | 42.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 29c | 41.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 42c | 41.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 30c | 40.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 39.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 39.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 55c | 37.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 36.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 30.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 26.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 48c | 25.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 24.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 62c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 55c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 55c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e17…5ff5backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 17.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.