TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Merida Open Akron: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Yulia Putintseva

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kasintsevaof Kasintseva, Putintseva
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$232,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc5b…8ef3backed Kasintseva29c34,672$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,672.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+246.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Putintseva65c28,489$18,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,406.011,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kasintseva36c18,768$6,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,954.767,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46e6…d4cdbacked Kasintseva35c9,518$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,202.476550.8%33 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Putintseva60c8,334$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Putintseva61c7,940$4,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,832.556,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kasintseva28c6,175$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,436.142,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Kasintseva57c5,545$3,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,386.3441645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Putintseva42c5,449$2,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,290.7155646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Putintseva65c4,500$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.9924060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kasintseva35c4,258$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.112,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Putintseva75c4,024$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.1520261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Putintseva78c3,951$3,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.878,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Putintseva63c3,280$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.2922553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kasintseva47c3,096$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.7381349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Putintseva56c2,851$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.4973745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Putintseva56c2,708$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.281,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Putintseva57c2,498$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.7299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Putintseva57c2,337$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.1856244.1%248 W · 314 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Putintseva57c2,294$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.7297046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…6296backed Putintseva4c2,253$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Kasintseva19c1,875$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.751952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Putintseva56c1,614$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.992,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Kasintseva36c1,500$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605565.5%36 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kasintseva45c1,275$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.52,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kasintseva70c1,125$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7765647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Putintseva64c1,104$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.494,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5b…6eb8backed Putintseva71c1,021$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.171172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Kasintseva30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70030542.6%130 W · 175 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Putintseva65c963.07$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Putintseva63c910.73$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.4172132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Putintseva68c886.31$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008762.1%54 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Putintseva43c877.8$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.291,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…bdfabacked Putintseva75c823$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked Putintseva57c791.47$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.319637.2%73 W · 123 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Putintseva62c715.42$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.5516648.8%81 W · 85 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Kasintseva29c693.9$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.0944448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Kasintseva23c634$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.381,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10dd…4831backed Kasintseva69c591.2$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3611858.5%69 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Putintseva37c532$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4252037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Putintseva76c523.96$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Kasintseva32c513$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.0226535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kasintseva70c480.94$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.214,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Kasintseva36c458.08$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.4715117.9%27 W · 124 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Kasintseva22c454.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.5563247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Putintseva43c414.33$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8828833.3%96 W · 192 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Kasintseva51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.161,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Putintseva60c366.49$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.317365.8%48 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Kasintseva57c356.36$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.8321346.5%99 W · 114 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Putintseva74c335.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021959.4%130 W · 89 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Putintseva43c325.58$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14019938.2%76 W · 123 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed Kasintseva46c325.2$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.226227.9%73 W · 189 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Putintseva60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18014858.8%87 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kasintseva25c299.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.457,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Putintseva50c285.14$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.526,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed Putintseva72c270.63$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.338345.8%38 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Kasintseva27c250.87$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.211,98046.2%915 W · 1,065 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33f…159cbacked Putintseva70c250.6$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1754551.1%23 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Kasintseva20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20016133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a48…498cbacked Putintseva78c241.97$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.69666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Putintseva51c234.35$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.012,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Kasintseva26c223$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.0238048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Putintseva75c207.57$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.041,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Putintseva74c202.7$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15047946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a6…a5cfbacked Kasintseva64c198.3$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.396651.5%34 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a45…f81bbacked Putintseva67c185.77$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.332147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee26…9dcabacked Kasintseva18c179.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.59560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+120.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Kasintseva29c172.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4151342.9%220 W · 293 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Putintseva60c166.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.27,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc503…b82cbacked Putintseva73c165.71$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.496768.7%46 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Putintseva64c157.74$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5521655.6%120 W · 96 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Putintseva64c157.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Putintseva57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.570465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef6…e31abacked Putintseva80c138.16$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…2b01backed Putintseva78c135.35$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.572965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Kasintseva27c132.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.037459.5%44 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kasintseva26c131.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1776140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kasintseva32c130$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.811,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Kasintseva58c128$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.764,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c0…c187backed Kasintseva30c125.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.784447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Kasintseva16c118.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7572542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kasintseva17c118.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.756,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Kasintseva48c112$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5226349%129 W · 134 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Kasintseva32c104.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.685133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Putintseva24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423847.1%112 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Putintseva74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7477967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Kasintseva45c98.41$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1213052.3%68 W · 62 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…64eebacked Putintseva63c94.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604269%29 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd88e…a8c6backed Kasintseva36c93.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a52…06cbbacked Kasintseva38c92.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1117056.5%96 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Putintseva64c84.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8218551.4%95 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kasintseva55c81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.711,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b7…a035backed Putintseva54c80.24$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4323554.5%128 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Putintseva71c80.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9720847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Kasintseva18c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6669429.8%207 W · 487 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Putintseva63c77.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.65,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Putintseva71c76.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3768026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Putintseva41c70.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed Kasintseva28c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.14445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Kasintseva28c69.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.893,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.