TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs DNSTY (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DNSTYof UCAM Esports Club, DNSTY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b37…1f70backed UCAM Esports Club59c4,397$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.1111159.5%66 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked UCAM Esports Club60c3,550$2,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.7415850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked UCAM Esports Club59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.9978162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked DNSTY30c2,020$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.9711854.2%64 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked DNSTY34c2,009$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9219157.1%109 W · 82 L+23.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f47…da7bbacked DNSTY40c1,900$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed DNSTY41c1,825$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.5941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked DNSTY40c1,789$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.7361035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked DNSTY38c1,645$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.177550.7%38 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed DNSTY41c1,312$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7743129%9 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked UCAM Esports Club55c1,138$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.197749.4%38 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe207…56c7backed DNSTY43c1,135$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+32.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed DNSTY40c984.18$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.6646326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked UCAM Esports Club61c960.75$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.964252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed DNSTY42c942$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.9115942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed UCAM Esports Club51c937.04$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.9341537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed DNSTY39c799.99$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.9917349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed UCAM Esports Club59c728.88$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.042166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked UCAM Esports Club69c670.15$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.48746%40 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked UCAM Esports Club60c657.41$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.453770.3%26 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc210…a365backed UCAM Esports Club75c593.79$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked UCAM Esports Club60c593.41$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.043743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed DNSTY38c560.03$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.225952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed DNSTY42c504.06$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.9670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed DNSTY41c482.3$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.5610142.6%43 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed UCAM Esports Club61c478.99$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0110956%61 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked DNSTY38c465.79$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.0910346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked DNSTY45c433.13$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.671225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked DNSTY26c432.1$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.566038.3%23 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed DNSTY40c430.36$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7623146.8%108 W · 123 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked DNSTY40c419.41$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.981,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed UCAM Esports Club60c371.86$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.111457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed DNSTY40c357.6$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.565728.1%16 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked DNSTY39c344.48$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.133537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed DNSTY40c334$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.42065%13 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed DNSTY37c321.62$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.627530.7%23 W · 52 L-9.0wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed UCAM Esports Club47c320.07$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.089845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked UCAM Esports Club62c313.9$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.474641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed UCAM Esports Club67c312.46$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked UCAM Esports Club54c304.53$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.471,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked DNSTY40c296.07$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.649052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed UCAM Esports Club55c292.6$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3977929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb89b…a39dbacked UCAM Esports Club61c288.1$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.742356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked UCAM Esports Club61c277.4$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.212556%14 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked UCAM Esports Club63c244.45$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1544531.1%14 W · 31 L-9.8wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked DNSTY40c241$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.65651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed DNSTY40c236.18$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.713759.5%22 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+52.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked UCAM Esports Club59c233.2$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.592157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked DNSTY41c231.5$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5936648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked DNSTY34c218.72$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e2b…7fc1backed DNSTY40c192.8$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.682259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked DNSTY41c184.24$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.74959.2%29 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed UCAM Esports Club60c179.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.753966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74f…030abacked UCAM Esports Club60c169.82$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.891631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick61cpaid-51.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed UCAM Esports Club60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.62944.8%13 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed UCAM Esports Club62c157.61$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.722454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed DNSTY31c156.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3934739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed DNSTY37c154.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7228247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…08fbbacked DNSTY41c152.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+61.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked DNSTY40c152.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.393540%14 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed UCAM Esports Club60c150.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.184557.8%26 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked DNSTY40c136$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.623548.5%114 W · 121 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed UCAM Esports Club53c129.74$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4942540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed DNSTY37c121.21$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9518948.7%92 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked UCAM Esports Club60c121.02$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.564168.3%28 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed UCAM Esports Club61c120.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.447455.4%41 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked DNSTY41c118.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9614959.7%89 W · 60 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed DNSTY41c117.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked DNSTY41c112.81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0854439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed DNSTY40c109.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.942669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed DNSTY42c103.3$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.55834.5%20 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed UCAM Esports Club68c102.02$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.379953.5%53 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed UCAM Esports Club60c101.58$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.955451.9%28 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed DNSTY40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed DNSTY41c94.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.861,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed DNSTY38c91.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4813225%33 W · 99 L-18.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8e58…fb5abacked UCAM Esports Club61c90$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.91450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed UCAM Esports Club57c89.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.157433.8%25 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd82…4068backed DNSTY41c87.78$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked DNSTY36c84.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0326758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed DNSTY41c82.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.943167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked UCAM Esports Club62c82.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2423644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed DNSTY33c80.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7799846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed UCAM Esports Club55c79.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9235331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe702…d88cbacked UCAM Esports Club66c75.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.934843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed UCAM Esports Club60c74.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.353046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed DNSTY32c73.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4238…3734backed DNSTY40c72.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.381631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x669d…3a77backed UCAM Esports Club60c72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.21957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked UCAM Esports Club59c71.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.073751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed UCAM Esports Club60c70.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.471,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked UCAM Esports Club61c68.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.712750.4%64 W · 63 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed DNSTY40c67.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4911446.5%53 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed DNSTY50c66.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4714447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4a…4ce0backed UCAM Esports Club61c56.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.552347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked DNSTY41c56.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3810346.6%48 W · 55 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked UCAM Esports Club56c54.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3921048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…2c71backed UCAM Esports Club67c53.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.667263.9%46 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1599…5432backed UCAM Esports Club66c52.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.574946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a5…bedabacked UCAM Esports Club72c49.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.