MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92bd7103e619f2338f6b68e63caf2b16051d805dd0fde7df516ab995b5de25f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 14,862$7,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,234.55 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…1ed9backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 11,993$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,192.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 10,120$5,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 8,323$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.4 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…f91cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 3,750$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 2,323$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.21 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 2,308$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 1,962$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.76 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 1,686$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 1,293$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 1,243$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 1,076$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 732.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.93 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 602.89$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.18 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 570$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.26 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 539.48$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 377$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 316.72$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.19 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 298.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 296.77$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 273.37$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 199.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 181$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 177$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 96.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 65.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…380bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 42.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…7f5ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 24.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.