NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ed3c29249e6e2056b2c40f04d9bd06f82264d36c04f012f0758420f01a8eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 61c | 2,521$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.81 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 40c | 2,144$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.8 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 1,598$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.92 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 45c | 1,354$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.07 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 44c | 1,124$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.62 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 59c | 1,034$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.16 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 54c | 980$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.2 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…7dc4backed Under | 57c | 895.91$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 57c | 561.4$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 43c | 502.67$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 42c | 444.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.98 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…5572backed Under | 57c | 347.19$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0325…7a97backed Over | 44c | 342.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a8…704abacked Under | 57c | 342.63$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…4209backed Over | 44c | 340.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 75c | 302.87$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 244.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Under | 63c | 188.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 37c | 180$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 29c | 175.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e8…72ccbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 172.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 56c | 171.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…35b5backed Under | 11c | 168.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 24c | 154.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 128.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7954…0e92backed Under | 34c | 89.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Under | 57c | 72.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 44c | 42.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce3…40f3backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 56c | 24.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Under | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Under | 60c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d68abacked Over | 59c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 57c | 17.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 59c | 17.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Penguins won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.