WNBA · resolved market
Sky vs. Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92fc5f450c5d450d7dcf3eef2e508dd264587ea91c43d9ff81ddfccc6160f047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Sky, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Sky | 32c | 12,737$4,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.48 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sky | 16c | 9,944$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.19 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Sky | 11c | 3,900$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Sky | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Sky | 16c | 1,301$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 79c | 1,160$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.57 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Sky | 16c | 1,122$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.57 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Sky | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Sky | 20c | 993.39$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c8…1ee0backed Mercury | 65c | 982.63$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Mercury | 77c | 850.84$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Sky | 14c | 819$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sky | 14c | 718.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sky | 15c | 683.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Sky | 7c | 672$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 62 | 4.8%3 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sky | 16c | 632.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2d…58b9backed Mercury | 76c | 525.76$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Sky | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Mercury | 70c | 486.38$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sky | 16c | 440$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Sky | 7c | 361.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Mercury | 62c | 343.12$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Sky | 18c | 333.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Sky | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…e33abacked Sky | 21c | 225$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sky | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Sky | 23c | 199.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Mercury | 62c | 161.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Sky | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a0f4backed Sky | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Sky | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Sky | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sky | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Sky | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…0fddbacked Sky | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Mercury | 65c | 132.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Sky | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…b328backed Sky | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Sky | 17c | 119.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Mercury | 62c | 111.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Mercury | 66c | 108.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Sky | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Mercury | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Sky | 12c | 99.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Mercury | 63c | 90.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Sky | 15c | 81.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Mercury | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Mercury | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Mercury | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Mercury | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Mercury | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Mercury | 74c | 80.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…e61cbacked Sky | 26c | 77.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Sky | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Sky | 39c | 45.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Mercury | 62c | 30.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.