TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Sky vs. Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mercuryof Sky, Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2509…e4dbbacked Sky32c12,737$4,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,111.483938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Sky16c9,944$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.1923931.8%76 W · 163 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Sky11c3,900$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41621440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Sky14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Sky16c1,301$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.053652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury79c1,160$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.5731847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Sky16c1,122$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.578633.7%29 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Sky15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Sky20c993.39$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8219.5%2 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-68%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8c8…1ee0backed Mercury65c982.63$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Mercury77c850.84$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.74875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Sky14c819$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.667855.1%43 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Sky14c718.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017541.1%72 W · 103 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sky15c683.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023431.6%74 W · 160 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Sky7c672$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.68624.8%3 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Sky16c632.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027232.7%89 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2d…58b9backed Mercury76c525.76$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Sky14c500$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Mercury70c486.38$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.321668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sky16c440$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.847542.7%32 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Sky7c361.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.043458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Mercury62c343.12$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.393748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Sky18c333.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.71546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+67.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Sky15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3873…e33abacked Sky21c225$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Sky16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.521337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x385a…08d1backed Sky23c199.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Mercury62c161.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.294250%21 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Sky31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dee…a0f4backed Sky31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+122.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9efd…1880backed Sky16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Sky16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Sky13c154$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0214136.2%51 W · 90 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Sky14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214030%12 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x396a…0fddbacked Sky15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Mercury65c132.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.313754.1%20 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x166a…5ba5backed Sky16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205939%23 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8210…b328backed Sky16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Sky17c119.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5c…1d65backed Mercury62c111.75$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.471346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Mercury66c108.2$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.263961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+47.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3095…8e0ebacked Sky15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+94.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x605a…c6debacked Mercury80c99.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Sky12c99.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94942.9%21 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Mercury63c90.65$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.353847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Sky15c81.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.162330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked Mercury62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Mercury62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Mercury62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.653060%18 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Mercury62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Mercury62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652878.6%22 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+62.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Mercury74c80.19$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.056651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe708…e61cbacked Sky26c77.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Sky30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe07c…551dbacked Sky39c45.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Mercury62c30.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.461172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+84.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.