TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on February 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,508 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x809c…4861backed No0c6,173$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes34c2,440$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.8826339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No11c2,125$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.524010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes27c1,219$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.697323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes14c799.9$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.927823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes28c658.56$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.5843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes25c658.51$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.3495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes62c633.11$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.8334651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c576.68$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.622,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No74c502.88$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No80c472.4$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1818041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No23c468.07$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes27c458.36$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.089429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes38c399.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.111646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c359.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes13c355.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.6455919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes27c348.35$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.055635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes44c346.67$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No64c340.67$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.722050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes22c311.16$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.361,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf649…5bb6backed Yes24c306.83$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.912725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked No72c300$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.156526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes26c280.64$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.433435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes18c267.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6929642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes37c260.67$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.84833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c256.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.788,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes18c255.58$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.523336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes20c254.72$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No7c242.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8134219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes21c241.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6719461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes16c221.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.98337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes15c214.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.0216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes17c211.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.2221847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked No50c210.01$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.52437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes9c200$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18216432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7af9…44dfbacked No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed No79c191$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9586226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes39c168.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5729922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c147.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes10c137.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.291,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed Yes12c126.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.921855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes21c125$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9232044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No77c122$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.948565.9%56 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked No76c113.51$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c113.33$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.193,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fd…f76bbacked No17c103.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.021650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d22…2c96backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+143.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes19c99.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9928737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes13c99.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9936123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes53c86.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cef…959ebacked No15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.162015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe573…ae05backed Yes18c79.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.64637%17 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No79c76.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes18c75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.516465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No20c74.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes22c72.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.517719.5%15 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes37c72.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.227552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes44c71.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.822010%2 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a89…0e5dbacked No77c66.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512245.5%10 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes43c63.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.875050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c62.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.612,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes65c57.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.478834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c64…844fbacked Yes22c54.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No46c52.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes26c51.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3610235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked No76c51.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2722236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fc…37dfbacked No69c39.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb71c…97efbacked No79c37.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick71cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x394c…158cbacked Yes53c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba79…bd1fbacked No47c35.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed No63c35.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes57c35.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0115133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No48c34.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.511,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a67…5773backed Yes32c30.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.881145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7a…5ea0backed Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed No76c25.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.658835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbe…e620backed No80c25.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.995143.1%22 W · 29 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed No42c24.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.124535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb256…0506backed No70c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick74cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b2…bab5backed No72c20.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-85.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a8…642bbacked No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.292853.6%15 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa83…92ebbacked No75c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.