Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f2e29a96f68d743a0c8137967a7db5f78d5f2342f9304c631c6ed50092fc932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6396…aff3backed Yes | 1c | 26,501$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…05f7backed Yes | 2c | 11,869$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 11c | 3,100$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 80c | 2,940$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.12 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,084$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed Yes | 2c | 1,306$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 9c | 1,288$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 52c | 1,151$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.42 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 52c | 906.27$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.61 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 47c | 586.59$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.89 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 520.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.63 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 44c | 443.9$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.17 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 16c | 418.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 63c | 386.98$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.78 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 42c | 373.32$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 60c | 348.05$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 44c | 340.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 37c | 300.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 29c | 283.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8e…07f8backed Yes | 54c | 276.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 48c | 270.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 9c | 240.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 63c | 237.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 62c | 226.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 52c | 209.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 39c | 203.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed Yes | 44c | 188.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 36c | 184.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 43c | 183.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 70c | 177.49$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 57c | 158.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 40c | 153.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…0209backed Yes | 70c | 152.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 47c | 152.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 51c | 147.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 61c | 134.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…52c6backed Yes | 41c | 122.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 38c | 121.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 109.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 31c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 33c | 105.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 38c | 104.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 100.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 96.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 51c | 94.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 38c | 84.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 48c | 76.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 33c | 75.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 75.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 41c | 73.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 41c | 72.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 35c | 71.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked Yes | 57c | 70.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 69.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 47c | 67.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 64c | 60.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 35c | 60.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 59c | 59.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…1bc3backed Yes | 43c | 57.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 49c | 56.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 55.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d22…2c96backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 48.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 51c | 45.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…e574backed Yes | 44c | 45.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 43c | 44.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…bf35backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 49c | 41.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 38c | 40.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…2a57backed Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes | 56c | 39.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…bd5fbacked Yes | 41c | 38.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 33c | 38.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on February 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.