Fifa International · resolved market
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9314394d370ebacb82c8e3ac2acc4f72a8f0bd799a5e87f1e37932f69ac05ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 18,712$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.59 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7595…50ffbacked Yes | 23c | 4,348$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 3,793$2,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.13 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 77c | 3,500$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…c529backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,970$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.79 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 1,328$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.69 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 730.04$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.91 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 23c | 578.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…d8debacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 45.1%60 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 77c | 310.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed No | 78c | 246.22$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…fe59backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed No | 73c | 169.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…d362backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 150.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…62b5backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…92a5backed Yes | 25c | 147.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 77c | 137.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 77c | 111.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…720fbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…ab02backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 98.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 76c | 93.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 77c | 91.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 77c | 88.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…c795backed Yes | 23c | 85.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…1635backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…8044backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 76c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff8…2a29backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 75c | 31.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tunisia to score first vs. Japan?this page
- Japan to score first vs. Tunisia?Yes won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.