Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x931accca7e2ce7495040dfe98714eea1e8bcbf3888a325684982c819f0f29629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 409.17$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 313.71$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 309.52$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 290.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.11 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 39c | 269.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.75 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 265.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 265.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.06 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 228.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 31c | 216.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 61c | 133.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 10c | 124.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 120.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 117.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 105.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 55c | 99.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 75.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 64c | 75.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 52c | 70.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 51c | 68.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 62.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…8744backed Yes | 21c | 59.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 64c | 58.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 19c | 56.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed No | 66c | 53.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 63c | 52.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 29c | 48.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 62c | 44.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 70c | 44.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes | 63c | 43.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 63c | 40.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 39.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 71c | 38.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 64c | 36.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 70c | 34.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 30c | 33.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 36c | 32.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 64c | 32.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 61c | 32.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 70c | 31.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 34c | 30.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 41c | 29.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes | 70c | 28.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 27.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 50c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 65c | 20.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 71c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 60c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.