Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935207b9f41e0260615dfa13c2fc583d4e3ea06085bce88d442c8bda01b75c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 651.76$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 389.46$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 329.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 27c | 308.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 279.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 222.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 158$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 139.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 38c | 134.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 42c | 134.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 41c | 122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 113.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 108.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 101.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 93.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…4c10backed Yes | 40c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 77.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 61c | 70.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 71c | 69.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 40c | 63.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 58.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 60c | 49.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…4439backed Yes | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 53c | 45.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 37.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 37.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 34.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 30.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 47c | 27.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 43c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Yes | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 13.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.