Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9358beedfb03bcf99314e13ab01a5cbe47b1f4a3ccf900d7d9b321bdd41c549b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 17c | 440.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 265.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 64c | 185.35$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 71c | 145.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 137.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 15c | 120.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes | 37c | 113.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 110.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 97.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 34c | 93.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 78.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 54c | 76.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 75.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 51c | 72.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 70.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 54.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 51.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 50.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 49.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 48.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 31c | 45.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 50c | 45.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 41.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 37.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 36.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 36.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed Yes | 41c | 36.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 55c | 36.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 34.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 33.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 63c | 32.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 29.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 65c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 39c | 25.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 62c | 24.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 23.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 63c | 16.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 75c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.