Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93604022c65750fb9a525fb50d7c48c8a096f285d195447c8188d80081ceffd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Montana State Bobcats, Eastern Washington Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $545,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $546,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Eastern Washington Eagles | 53c | 525,223$278,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278,027.95 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 300,000$141,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159,000 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 150,000$70,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,500 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 50,000$23,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,300 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 48c | 8,308$3,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340.27 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Montana State Bobcats | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Eastern Washington Eagles | 50c | 1,983$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.5 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 1,832$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.24 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 1,769$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.5 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Eastern Washington Eagles | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 740.12$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.06 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 504$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Eastern Washington Eagles | 46c | 501.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.85 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Montana State Bobcats | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Montana State Bobcats | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…1e9ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 217.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Eastern Washington Eagles | 46c | 191.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…7132backed Eastern Washington Eagles | 74c | 180.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana State Bobcats | 48c | 151$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Eastern Washington Eagles | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Montana State Bobcats | 48c | 76.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Eastern Washington Eagles | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Eastern Washington Eagles | 48c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 57.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 43.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Montana State Bobcats | 51c | 41.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Eastern Washington Eagles | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-2.5)this page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Eastern Washington EaglesMontana State Bobcats won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Eastern Washington Eagles: O/U 154.5Under won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Eastern Washington Eagles: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.