CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Marsborne (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a7cae3f6dc1d318d6acf93ee1507fc6a3b39fd797936ca4cc0afbfed636f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marsborneof NRG, Marsborne
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked NRG | 53c | 1,849$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.18 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Marsborne | 46c | 624.99$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.82 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…708fbacked Marsborne | 49c | 455.41$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.41 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Marsborne | 44c | 331.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.27 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Marsborne | 45c | 262.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Marsborne | 45c | 239.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d37…f722backed Marsborne | 47c | 236.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked Marsborne | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Marsborne | 49c | 204.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Marsborne | 48c | 179.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed NRG | 54c | 160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed NRG | 56c | 144.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed NRG | 55c | 134.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NRG | 54c | 116.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed NRG | 55c | 60.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 217 | 50.7%110 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Marsborne | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed NRG | 47c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa729…1d4abacked Marsborne | 49c | 30.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Marsborne | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 333 | 40.2%134 W · 199 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Marsborne | 44c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Marsborne (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier PlayoffsNRG won
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne - Map 1 WinnerMarsborne won
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne - Map 2 WinnerNRG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Marsborne (+1.5)Marsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.