CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47107365eb9bbbb52163b9d922f40a51cdfffb14f56adefb45aa4172f93a9992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof NRG, Marsborne
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked NRG | 76c | 1,156$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.55 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b88…16e6backed Marsborne | 26c | 1,141$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 158 | 23.4%37 W · 121 L | -18.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed NRG | 74c | 1,041$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.88 | 190 | 61.6%117 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c5…e030backed Marsborne | 31c | 934.02$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…b275backed Marsborne | 16c | 735.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked NRG | 77c | 618.51$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Marsborne | 25c | 563.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.79 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Marsborne | 27c | 492$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Marsborne | 21c | 461.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NRG | 74c | 375.12$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed NRG | 73c | 365.82$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Marsborne | 21c | 329.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked NRG | 71c | 326.72$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked NRG | 70c | 324.8$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Marsborne | 25c | 289.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Marsborne | 29c | 254.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Marsborne | 25c | 210.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed NRG | 74c | 169.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Marsborne | 22c | 152.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Marsborne | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a856backed Marsborne | 32c | 140.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NRG | 74c | 97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Marsborne | 26c | 85.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Marsborne | 30c | 76.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…2dcfbacked Marsborne | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed NRG | 67c | 73.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…b4e9backed NRG | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed NRG | 78c | 49.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Marsborne | 25c | 43.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed NRG | 78c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed NRG | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed NRG | 67c | 31.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 587 | 45%264 W · 323 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked NRG | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed NRG | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked NRG | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42d…94d3backed NRG | 77c | 13.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier PlayoffsNRG won
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne - Map 1 WinnerMarsborne won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Marsborne (+3.5)Marsborne won
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Marsborne (+1.5)Marsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.