Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93c3afbebd9f50f7eb2863e838c99d73b9d6e8a620d00bd3a6809f0d0a6984ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 4,151$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 3c | 2,025$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,736$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…9403backed Yes | 8c | 1,142$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 5c | 1,091$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50a…a28cbacked Yes | 4c | 763.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 698.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 691.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 689$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…c8d2backed Yes | 8c | 657.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 601.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 12c | 566.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 483.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0552…e330backed Yes | 6c | 474.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 464.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 6c | 431.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 405.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 385.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 3c | 381.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 6c | 310$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 242.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 6c | 225.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 5c | 201.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 195.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 173.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…c794backed Yes | 9c | 165.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 13c | 162.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x214f…fabcbacked Yes | 13c | 127.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 15c | 99.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 13c | 84.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.