TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,486 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes23c1,765$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.3257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes47c1,700$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.2930919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes22c1,500$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.0542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes18c1,493$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.772,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No78c1,199$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.3331043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes12c599.87$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.911,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c588.89$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.865,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes9c579.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes25c560.71$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c537.55$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.993,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes5c517.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.621,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No72c480.52$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.952,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No65c473.11$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.0912762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No68c470.53$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.321,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes10c470.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5416530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Yes61c437.92$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.19425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-57.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes35c431.78$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15325344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes26c420.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.812,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes42c418.38$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9221236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes8c350$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4811938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No59c326.28$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6276924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No15c320.38$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2528718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes7c309.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes25c289.52$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No73c283.17$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked No75c278.74$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.684621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No73c259$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa139…5bc2backed Yes16c253.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4611240.2%45 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes14c251.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0320852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes21c250.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.171,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No75c239.49$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.572,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c226.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.728,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22c2…a8f9backed Yes13c222.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes45c221.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8610843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No66c213.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c211.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.741,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes28c208.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes57c207.2$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8817135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes29c201.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5112941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes59c198.66$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.232138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes29c189.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.794533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes50c177.69$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8818164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes31c170.43$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No79c162.34$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c160.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.677,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9634…3eabbacked Yes14c159.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No74c157.84$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes19c157.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…7104backed Yes28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.343828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb69b…368ebacked No75c143.9$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9727560%165 W · 110 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No65c142.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6810163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes54c140.83$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27a…06f8backed Yes24c140.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.381931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No73c136.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa502…4c89backed No74c134.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.681662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes51c123$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed Yes28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.62857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes25c119.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes24c115$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes21c113.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.249832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes25c110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes20c110$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9217138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No50c107.08$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.391,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes26c106$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1822945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca5f…1e74backed Yes19c105.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011342.5%48 W · 65 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes23c102.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7416234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c102.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes31c102$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.034139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317536%27 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5928839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f57…f387backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3911859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcde1…76d5backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba47…df90backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No76c96.45$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes26c96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes29c86.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8711646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No76c84.85$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4988973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes19c83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1815722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes49c81.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.931330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd136…ef46backed Yes63c79.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507665.8%50 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b98…925ebacked Yes29c79.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.713842.8%59 W · 79 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+164.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca77…e487backed Yes26c77.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No55c73.72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbe9…06cebacked Yes30c69.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb19…08febacked No74c67.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes29c67.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.399741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c63.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.389,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c7…2b48backed Yes33c63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.791225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes27c62.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1718534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes24c62.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9861929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No75c61.22$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5916968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b14…5115backed Yes20c60.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.911442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.