TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes26c2,279$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.8431043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes2c1,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed Yes3c650$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c571.41$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No75c499.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes22c474.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes22c460.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed Yes23c435.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No78c385.12$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.042,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No78c315.35$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c288.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.149,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No78c282.17$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.121,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c278.64$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No76c269.12$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No77c258.98$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5781165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes23c257.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.071,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No77c249.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5812762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb070…952cbacked Yes21c234.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes19c233.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.449425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes26c227.68$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No79c220.04$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.982,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes13c212.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.712744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c210.4$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes15c180.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.921,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2287…139ebacked No80c170$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.133250%16 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes29c162.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4419148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes18c160.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5626434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No79c158.59$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1510966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No77c150.1$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0976924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No76c144$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.564,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No79c143.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.432,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No79c137.51$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.281,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No78c132.5$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0813…017ebacked No75c129.33$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes19c125.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes23c125$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.171,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes22c123.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.781,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.277,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes21c116.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c114.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.941,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes20c110.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.153333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes22c107.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes12c105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3757044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes28c104.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.055332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes20c100.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.251,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42b0…7904backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.572441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes25c98.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…3304backed Yes20c95.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.789830.6%30 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1211…b173backed Yes15c94.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes24c94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes24c91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.944139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c88.81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.25,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No78c87.81$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4616968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd843…29a5backed Yes24c83.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35af…8e95backed No75c82.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.497762.3%48 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4352…c794backed Yes18c81.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Yes22c81.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.849150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes18c80.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.566016.7%10 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c79.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.737,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes19c78.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9211938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes23c78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes21c77.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No77c76.57$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5651762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes17c68.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes19c68.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x92b2…31c9backed Yes21c67.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes22c65.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.418814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes20c65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1334050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.142976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed Yes20c62.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.766716.4%11 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c62.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes18c61.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.034738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.74,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes21c58.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.271947.4%9 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+142.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe27a…06f8backed Yes24c56.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.511931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No80c55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7911859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.927939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No79c49.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4819059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes23c48.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbe9…06cebacked Yes22c47.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No78c45.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.791,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.130664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed No78c38.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.479053.3%48 W · 42 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No74c37.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.051,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.510059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No77c28.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5819160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.