TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8444…1cf9backed No3c3,600$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes9c1,748$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.482138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No15c1,464$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4576924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes58c1,190$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.4331043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes34c1,153$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.8742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes66c1,057$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.7957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…4fd0backed No74c861.99$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.855050%25 W · 25 L-10.5wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c828.32$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes53c654.57$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.57944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0552…e330backed Yes49c586.39$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No44c483.95$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.872,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No50c473.86$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.2912762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed No73c464.22$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.586369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed No45c447.43$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.224032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No38c430.63$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.651,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No53c414.4$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x604a…d5f8backed No5c399.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c397.59$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes46c396.01$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1225839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes61c392.04$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.6910845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes55c387.92$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.941,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c387.62$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.298,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed No9c378.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.241921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed Yes53c378$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17820266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes48c358.92$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.831,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Yes58c343.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.23425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-57.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes40c321.94$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.625,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes43c319.77$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.884738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Yes34c314.68$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2615236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No30c301.06$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0655855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1685846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c278$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.071,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No37c276.85$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2922945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No56c270.32$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.710843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No46c262.31$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.391,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No75c258.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.181165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes43c258.36$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c249$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.372,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes54c246.33$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes21c241.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4812228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No48c239.49$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.932,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No6c225.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5628718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc969…0377backed No5c220$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88512.9%11 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes56c213.67$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2711646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes57c212.66$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.065248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c203.12$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes47c202.67$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1612624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked No42c202.32$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.123435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No42c201.16$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.453,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes44c200$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d2…70a3backed No49c194.32$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.69560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No6c194.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes53c190$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes53c187.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4410141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No48c179.03$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.355158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa502…4c89backed No56c178.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c176.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes50c168.15$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2513160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No63c167.12$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.392,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No53c164.61$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.632,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes57c159.61$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.724533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No46c157.84$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.651,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes34c156.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes45c154.87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes29c150$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No46c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.64,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes51c145.96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.525,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes44c143.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7016437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes56c137.48$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.631637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe27a…06f8backed Yes51c133.62$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.391931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c133.38$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes53c132.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes23c130.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.433636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed No51c130$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.32857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes56c124.9$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.561,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0813…017ebacked Yes56c124.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.75955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No16c123.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5486420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes53c120$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes44c114.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.083324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x923f…6c4abacked Yes42c107.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.947346.6%34 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No35c105.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3717945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No58c105.33$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.892,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes55c105.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.147425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes58c103.8$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.111,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes54c101.72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.34139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes35c101.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0820835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4612638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6611859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b0…7904backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes64c97.42$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes42c95.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2614040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Yes40c95.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.097536%27 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd9…06e1backed No57c95.15$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No55c93.69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes56c93.63$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6334050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes52c93.1$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.