TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Australian A League · resolved market

Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over25c11,060$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.3298844.4%439 W · 549 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Under70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.955100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+54.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over30c2,221$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.191428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over28c1,535$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.530536.1%110 W · 195 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under69c1,468$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.4646644.8%209 W · 257 L-23.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over23c1,197$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.732138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede1…8ad7backed Over18c307.65$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.28100%0 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Under73c291.77$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.163268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Under72c215.85$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.924163.4%26 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d5…173dbacked Under69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under69c167$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7710160.4%61 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under68c155$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.813540.7%55 W · 80 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over30c142.86$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.867048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked Over14c132$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.48812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-76.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Under65c106.8$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Over10c104.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.481136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under77c104.31$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0730954.7%169 W · 140 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over23c101.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237425.7%19 W · 55 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over33c101.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e41…36f2backed Over31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284858.3%28 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under67c93.82$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5811858.5%69 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Over30c92.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc53e…fbedbacked Under70c85.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.714100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under79c84.18$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0733444%147 W · 187 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c5c…00eabacked Under72c77.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.83887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick68cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over25c75.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.742445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over33c69.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-33.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over28c63.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8447850.8%243 W · 235 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.051050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over32c53.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabee…4f3fbacked Over32c52.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over26c50.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.344148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over32c46.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7516865.5%110 W · 58 L+22.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over35c43.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1422652.7%119 W · 107 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x780a…1cd6backed Under70c38.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over31c33.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Under79c31.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Under71c30.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.882560%15 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1045…06c8backed Under70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb752…aea9backed Under70c28.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd7…caa5backed Under73c22.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Under69c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.89366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Under62c17.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.744100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under69c16.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.176162.3%38 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.