Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f682128306106cdfb2524d5b24c0c5a6ccbfce0a2dd733d74924d15ea84efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,241$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 485.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 310.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 23c | 299.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 296.07$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 15c | 282.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.64 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 5c | 259.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.57 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 257.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 172.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 160.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 50c | 156$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 155.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…7c26backed Yes | 11c | 153.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +782.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 7c | 141.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 58c | 127.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 123.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb516…9b19backed No | 47c | 106.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 41c | 106.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 100.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 90.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 88.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed Yes | 48c | 83.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 53c | 74.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 49c | 72.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 67.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 60.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 73c | 56.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 56.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 53c | 55.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 64c | 46.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 46.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 62c | 45.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 44.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 43.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 42.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…d47dbacked No | 43c | 34.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 28.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 45c | 28.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 70c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 26.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 78c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 68c | 25.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 72c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 49c | 23.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 49c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 47c | 21.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 20.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…61a9backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 65c | 17.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.