TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,504 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c2,096$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.588,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c577.94$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.911,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c450$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.53,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c275.5$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.093,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c268.87$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.912,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c262.12$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes38c202.03$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.765,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3844448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c197.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.555,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c197$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.615,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c166.44$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes36c160.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.121,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No77c149.95$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4728441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c145.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.38,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No74c142.39$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.583,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes42c140.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6519148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes35c131.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6110134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes36c126.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9227744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No68c125.4$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes25c106.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.624,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No60c105.7$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6318629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes41c100.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2232440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes35c86.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No70c81.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4547866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No69c81.35$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.821,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c79.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.979,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No59c79.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.093,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No59c79.17$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes37c72.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6575546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes37c70.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes21c67.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4644465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No68c66.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0280957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes37c65.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No61c64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No74c63.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.26,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No65c63.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4155954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3363255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c53.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No63c52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56827.9%19 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1015176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c47.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c47.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.934,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes41c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes40c43.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.277555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c42.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.483,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8e…2175backed Yes34c42.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes42c41.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.631,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.229443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.228666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c39.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.492,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes36c39.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1829732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes40c34.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.831,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes43c34.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No59c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38e…272bbacked Yes37c33.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510219.6%20 W · 82 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…6060backed No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.721838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No63c31.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7568867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c30.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.032,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No65c30.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.631,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No63c28.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No60c27.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No62c26.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.042,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No63c26.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7621268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.882,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No59c23.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.656437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No64c22.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.161,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No67c22.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.421,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No73c21.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No71c21.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.112,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No70c20.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.132,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No59c20.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4144567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.619565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.813545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No60c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.942555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No59c18.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6228866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No64c17.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No78c17.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.881,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.