Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4579d92768243f1b1170738e0ca5868ca64f531210895462133c7fe1b0a85df6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 2,096$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 577.94$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 450$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 275.5$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 268.87$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 262.12$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 202.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 197.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 197$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 166.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 36c | 160.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 77c | 149.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 145.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 142.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 42c | 140.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 35c | 131.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 126.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 125.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 106.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 60c | 105.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 100.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 35c | 86.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 81.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 81.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 79.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 79.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 59c | 79.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 37c | 72.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 70.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 21c | 67.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 66.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 65.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 63.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 63.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 53.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 63c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 47.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 47.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 40c | 43.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 42.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed Yes | 34c | 42.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 41.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 39.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 36c | 39.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 34.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 43c | 34.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 37c | 33.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 63c | 28.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 26.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 63c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 59c | 23.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 21.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 59c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 17.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.