Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee75d2caf7347f0d3c183de52b388792fa7628916a6f3d8ce1b9e9340597361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,093$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 539.72$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.71 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 484.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 327.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 270.29$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 253.54$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 224.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 197$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 32c | 193.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 39c | 169.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 7c | 147.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 10c | 127.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 82.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 34c | 76.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…e546backed Yes | 34c | 73.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 65.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 64.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 39c | 61.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 59.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 57.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 49.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 47.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 47.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 61c | 40.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…0d81backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 37.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 66c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 64c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.