Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f8e078ffbcde0d7e6b701725deb24be4bd810e943dda3ec6df9c484c1ceb60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,575 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Down | 8c | 78,442$6,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,576.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Down | 9c | 63,809$5,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,855.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…bbdbbacked Down | 5c | 49,720$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Down | 3c | 18,600$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.62 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Down | 4c | 13,846$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.24 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Down | 6c | 5,610$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 3c | 5,508$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.18 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Down | 4c | 3,800$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Down | 7c | 2,030$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Down | 10c | 1,890$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Down | 13c | 1,693$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Down | 2c | 1,667$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Down | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Down | 5c | 1,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Down | 3c | 1,355$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Down | 4c | 1,328$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Down | 1c | 963.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Down | 14c | 885.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Down | 10c | 873.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Down | 10c | 566.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Down | 5c | 519.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Down | 9c | 444$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed Down | 6c | 413.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed Down | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…ee37backed Down | 8c | 262.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1051…8cd6backed Down | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Down | 9c | 249.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed Down | 10c | 233.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…56f4backed Up | 58c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +152.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b2…417ebacked Down | 10c | 193.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7890…29d2backed Down | 40c | 179.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Down | 13c | 177.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…4797backed Down | 9c | 139.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…c34abacked Down | 10c | 134.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Down | 10c | 108.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Up | 54c | 106.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Down | 10c | 101.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefba…9cc2backed Down | 10c | 100.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…eed4backed Down | 16c | 73.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 60c | 46.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 50c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…41a5backed Down | 63c | 38.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…c9d9backed Up | 55c | 36.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.