Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941b3767b8bc7de8ac56dbd915b908c4a9e2d0d1b1ee6889d450593a5e6b2b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 1,798$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 4c | 412.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 16c | 304.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 16c | 303.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 274.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 248.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 19c | 244.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 211.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 15c | 210.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 135.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 11c | 129.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 123.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 119.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 107.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 16c | 101.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 100.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 17c | 99.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 15c | 98.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 97.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 15c | 77.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 28c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 19c | 75.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…bb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 68.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…938ebacked Yes | 20c | 61.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 21c | 47.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 75c | 46.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 30.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 30.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…0047backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 17.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.