Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72da64310348c6981d5a6ed139354631ee1f1335d4d3725546f43b4169f5b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 41c | 662.74$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 444.7$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 394.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 37c | 352.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 328.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 21c | 304.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 280.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 258$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 236$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 233.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…6c46backed Yes | 25c | 227.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 37c | 215.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 207.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 78c | 205.09$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 189.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 62c | 166.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 65c | 151.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 57c | 144.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 134$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 53c | 125.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 63c | 125$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 122.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 118$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 38c | 117.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 109$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 107$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 47c | 104.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 36c | 101.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 28c | 99.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 97.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 86.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 86.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 83.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 83.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 20c | 80.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 79.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 34c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 66c | 75.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 34c | 69.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…938ebacked Yes | 34c | 62.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 66c | 60.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 58.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 58.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 58.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…d760backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…3fd6backed Yes | 64c | 54.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 54.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 53.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 32c | 46.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 46.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 44c | 44.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 43.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 35c | 38.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 37.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 56c | 35.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…13d2backed Yes | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…bb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 62c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…1a28backed Yes | 36c | 32.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 31.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 66c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 28.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 28.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…73c1backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed No | 66c | 24.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 23.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 55c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 65c | 17.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.