Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca55178a9ec81af178505573335877a45d2f6ed65a159208baa1e0cd1c4c0c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 41c | 1,173$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.36 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 35c | 862.26$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.63 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked No | 65c | 555$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 35c | 521.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.22 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…e43abacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 42c | 491.54$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 465.37$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 433.7$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 78c | 327.19$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 299.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.57 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 298.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 293.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 288.69$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 66c | 273.65$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 268$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 30c | 233.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 219.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 55c | 218.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 6c | 216.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 194.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 22c | 171.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 34c | 152.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 144.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 55c | 143.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 32c | 133.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 50c | 132.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 19c | 129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 67c | 127$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 21c | 122.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 120.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 116$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 73c | 114.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…5130backed No | 48c | 113.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 33c | 112$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 32c | 110.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 77c | 109.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 106.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 24c | 105.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 48c | 104.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 31c | 102.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 102.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 97.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 95.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…bfb6backed Yes | 27c | 95.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 93.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 30c | 92.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 18c | 90.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 89.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 25c | 88.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 35c | 87.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 84.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 80.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 76.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 76.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…6c46backed No | 25c | 74.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 30c | 70.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 69.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 66.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 39c | 65.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 78c | 63.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 68c | 61.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…938ebacked Yes | 27c | 59.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 24c | 57.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 57.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 55.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 62c | 54.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 54.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 36c | 54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 23c | 52.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 50.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 30c | 50.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 46.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 47c | 45.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 76c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.