South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943df42b1d9a858279fe39ec4ee9d9f4e85a4c2a740b47cfd767606f82551675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 45c | 3,712$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.61 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 3,145$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 50c | 2,134$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 69c | 1,293$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.05 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 868.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…2732backed Over | 73c | 808.6$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 683.17$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.36 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…d698backed Over | 74c | 665.14$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 31c | 281.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 70c | 210.43$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 158.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Over | 76c | 149.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 53c | 147.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 58c | 146.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Over | 43c | 141.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…64febacked Under | 34c | 127.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Under | 31c | 108.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 53c | 104.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Over | 75c | 99.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 58c | 95.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 58c | 95.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 58c | 95.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 58c | 95.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 53c | 85.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 82.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 27c | 68.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 60.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 58c | 57.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 55.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Over | 71c | 55.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Under | 59c | 48.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 73c | 47.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Over | 73c | 35.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 74c | 29.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Over | 52c | 28.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 22.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 67c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed Under | 58c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab98…5854backed Under | 59c | 17.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…a3cebacked Over | 73c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.