South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9bb6779f42ff42d68e8ae38cb7df0056a63f5ba0a0d8a3d2276b7c550b245bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e9…2732backed Over | 67c | 1,463$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 1,405$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.35 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 69c | 1,315$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.69 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 1,024$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.1 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 936.22$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 68c | 446.26$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 31c | 428.87$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 69c | 426.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 66c | 222.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Over | 69c | 216.27$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 215.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…d6aabacked Under | 33c | 209.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…2eb8backed Under | 33c | 185$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 180.02$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed Under | 33c | 149.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Under | 33c | 143.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Over | 69c | 141.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 114.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 98.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ebeebacked Under | 34c | 60.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 66c | 53.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 69c | 52.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 67c | 49.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 67c | 41.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 67c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 67c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…5923backed Over | 67c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 67c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Over | 67c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…c0ddbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 67c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.