South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0220948a027c747f223ebd9e8cd27984442e7a2d53bc0f326420a3af483aa322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 4,309$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 3,462$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.44 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 43c | 1,782$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.82 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 1c | 1,743$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 1,409$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.35 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 26c | 999.53$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.03 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 38c | 728.23$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.5 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 60c | 722.8$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.12 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…d698backed Over | 61c | 560.34$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…4a6fbacked Over | 59c | 380$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 48c | 365.41$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.69 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 17c | 263.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.32 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 10c | 238.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +221.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 200.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 198.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Under | 20c | 196.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 58c | 117.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Over | 49c | 102.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 47c | 97.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 88.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over | 26c | 61.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed Over | 49c | 60.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 46c | 58.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked Over | 26c | 54.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 37c | 50.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 35c | 50.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 71c | 48.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 56c | 48.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 60c | 43.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Under | 46c | 42.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ebeebacked Over | 50c | 34.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1f…feb5backed Over | 40c | 32.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 48c | 30.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Under | 66c | 29.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Under | 48c | 28.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Under | 74c | 26.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…725bbacked Under | 66c | 25.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf25…345bbacked Under | 70c | 22.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Under | 75c | 20.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.