South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5465a59985f25e1c7e20cd3767766fb29910025315438cc97814f5b8ae45f231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Over | 40c | 6,659$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,995.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 60c | 4,351$2,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,604.16 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,450$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 689.38$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.54 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 40c | 578.4$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 43c | 444.76$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.55 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…28dabacked Over | 42c | 398.28$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 58c | 390.18$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 40c | 363.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 79c | 285.9$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…d6aabacked Under | 60c | 210$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 63c | 201.77$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed Under | 60c | 197.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 61c | 189.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 182.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 39c | 179.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 40c | 166.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 60c | 151.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 60c | 139.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 60c | 138.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 42c | 114.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked Under | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 23c | 109.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 56c | 106.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 23c | 102.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1f…feb5backed Under | 22c | 102.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 98.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 42c | 97.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 38c | 95.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Under | 60c | 94.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 88.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Under | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 60c | 67.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…7ba3backed Under | 60c | 65.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Under | 60c | 58.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 43c | 58.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 61c | 58.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 60c | 52.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Under | 61c | 46.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 61c | 45.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 78c | 40.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 59c | 40.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 61c | 40.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 60c | 39.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Over | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 60c | 37.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…9ef0backed Over | 78c | 37.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…60acbacked Under | 44c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 61c | 28.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 61c | 28.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 61c | 28.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 61c | 28.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Over | 78c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 62c | 24.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Under | 61c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Under | 60c | 24.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 78c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Under | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 61c | 18.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 62c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 62c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 78c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.