Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Anastasija Sevastova vs Maya Joint
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945029cd221e37efbcdc879e2736656989e1e75dcf8388c46c36a4af6d6c7ffe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jointof Sevastova, Joint
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Joint | 42c | 11,062$4,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,414.34 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sevastova | 58c | 10,690$6,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,223.01 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Joint | 42c | 2,855$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…51f9backed Sevastova | 38c | 2,581$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.13 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Joint | 47c | 2,382$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.26 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Sevastova | 35c | 1,835$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.4 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sevastova | 58c | 1,254$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.18 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Joint | 44c | 1,193$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.91 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked Sevastova | 52c | 1,000$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…4194backed Sevastova | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…3913backed Joint | 36c | 621.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.01 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Joint | 60c | 615.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…b32ebacked Sevastova | 77c | 587.87$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Joint | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…c017backed Joint | 70c | 547$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Joint | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Joint | 63c | 499.42$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Joint | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…55f1backed Sevastova | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Joint | 75c | 249$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Sevastova | 57c | 213$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Joint | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2c…94c5backed Sevastova | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Sevastova | 54c | 189.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Sevastova | 66c | 171.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Joint | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9108…9264backed Sevastova | 18c | 141.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Joint | 43c | 116$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Joint | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Sevastova | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…1952backed Sevastova | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Joint | 21c | 91.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Joint | 57c | 86.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…960abacked Joint | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sevastova | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…a87cbacked Sevastova | 78c | 61.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Joint | 70c | 60.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Joint | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Sevastova | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Joint | 36c | 51.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Joint | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…8355backed Joint | 54c | 49.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked Joint | 41c | 48.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Joint | 67c | 40.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…c533backed Joint | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Sevastova | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed Joint | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Sevastova | 71c | 20.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.