TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,922 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox34c4,411$1,497 inLost-$1,497.2411,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox36c3,454$1,250 inLost-$1,250.48,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins63c3,451$2,188 inWon+$1,262.776,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins66c1,511$997 inWon+$513.762,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Minnesota Twins66c750.42$495 inWon+$255.141,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Minnesota Twins66c749.98$495 inWon+$254.9997050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins66c450.08$297 inWon+$153.031,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Minnesota Twins66c384$253 inWon+$130.561,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins73c311.23$226 inWon+$84.9412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Minnesota Twins66c232.28$153 inWon+$78.9766056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox26c200$52 inLost-$529,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Minnesota Twins66c167.89$111 inWon+$57.081,04051.8%539 W · 501 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Minnesota Twins66c163.84$108 inWon+$55.711,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox22c160.82$35 inLost-$35.384,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox34c126.89$44 inLost-$43.573,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Chicago White Sox22c100$22 inLost-$2268942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x165d…a4d5backed Minnesota Twins66c83.95$55 inWon+$28.549960.6%60 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ed…0adfbacked Minnesota Twins66c83.95$55 inWon+$28.5424657.3%141 W · 105 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins74c80.94$60 inWon+$20.943,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins66c78.85$52 inWon+$26.812,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a48…dc30backed Minnesota Twins68c54.6$37 inWon+$17.684344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins78c51.41$40 inWon+$11.314,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Chicago White Sox30c49.23$15 inLost-$14.771,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago White Sox30c49.23$15 inLost-$14.771,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…e409backed Minnesota Twins67c44.77$30 inWon+$14.778661.6%53 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Minnesota Twins67c42.59$28 inWon+$14.1870154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox30c39.77$12 inLost-$11.876,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Chicago White Sox35c38.75$14 inLost-$13.541,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Chicago White Sox37c32$12 inLost-$11.8417752.5%93 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf610…741cbacked Minnesota Twins66c30.02$20 inWon+$10.2125357.3%145 W · 108 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1496…e155backed Minnesota Twins66c27.5$18 inWon+$9.3512050%60 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2259…6a52backed Minnesota Twins79c16$13 inWon+$3.36666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins76c15.76$12 inWon+$3.782,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9685…634fbacked Minnesota Twins79c15$12 inWon+$3.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9993…a11cbacked Minnesota Twins79c14$11 inWon+$2.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.