MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1eb2873c2192a92e4cc006ed82fcfc496b041e1e63ac72a30550cc0c88a0c8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,570$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 1,228$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.89 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 975.82$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 690.01$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 446.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 46c | 231.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 67c | 225$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 181.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 59c | 167.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 45c | 151.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 37c | 116.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 36c | 86.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 38c | 73.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 72.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 63.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 63.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 53.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 45c | 50.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 49.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 44.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Over | 47c | 39.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 38.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 68c | 35.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 34.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 46c | 32.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 38c | 28.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 56c | 23.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 47c | 21.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.