TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,495 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under38c1,683$639 inLost-$63911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over62c1,104$688 inWon+$416.738,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over62c361.65$224 inWon+$137.432,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under21c223.85$48 inLost-$48.1112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over65c181.3$118 inWon+$63.283,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb922…1d3ebacked Over57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.443959%23 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over80c139$111 inWon+$28.188,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Under27c99$27 inLost-$26.7351849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under45c59$27 inLost-$26.5599744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over72c41.01$30 inWon+$11.4877353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45d6backed Over74c27.03$20 inWon+$7.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Over63c24.43$15 inWon+$8.941,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Over75c24$18 inWon+$616274.1%120 W · 42 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over74c21.33$16 inWon+$5.5350962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.