MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa3a3ab58323de7a19aee210f922b9dcd7210ed2247a2b76784de513eb4d37a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 8,522$3,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,860.37 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 8,513$4,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,225.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 3,511$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 2,318$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 1,821$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 1,616$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 1,506$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,199$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.42 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 1,053$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.39 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 896$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.32 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 796.25$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.68 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 630.31$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.75 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 547.48$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 527.03$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.03 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 466.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 372$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 164$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 126.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 112.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 100.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 17c | 84.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 54.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 49.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 44.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 43.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago White Sox | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 33.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 30.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…2adbbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Chicago White Sox | 72c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 20.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -12.1wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…f0a9backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…c130backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 18.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…6b9cbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.