TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere1c3,847$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.326169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Team Falcons72c3,480$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.722259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Falcons66c3,116$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.3319148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Natus Vincere28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Natus Vincere31c2,156$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.318452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Natus Vincere13c2,084$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7613455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Team Falcons69c2,022$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere26c1,331$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.781,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Natus Vincere33c789.97$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.584932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c5f…ced0backed Natus Vincere30c788.58$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.493259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab6b…d9d3backed Natus Vincere40c719.35$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere33c706.63$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.141,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere38c690$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.0630138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4594…b1acbacked Team Falcons77c651.95$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.951457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef1…c205backed Natus Vincere16c642.42$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.771030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere30c575.53$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.041,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc18…2ce9backed Team Falcons75c554.67$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.683850%19 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Natus Vincere41c519.07$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2123426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69ba…c976backed Natus Vincere38c505.59$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Team Falcons65c402.75$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6222945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere32c354.11$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3281029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons65c308.05$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.161,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere17c302.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Team Falcons67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Natus Vincere37c299.85$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.236142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Natus Vincere33c298.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Natus Vincere8c259.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63138.7%12 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+30.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Natus Vincere5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.814121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed Natus Vincere36c248.26$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6310134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Natus Vincere29c235$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf41…bfd4backed Team Falcons68c230$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Natus Vincere20c210$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.84136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Natus Vincere38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7667853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Falcons76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4817353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecd4…897ebacked Team Falcons66c199.72$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x812d…8f72backed Team Falcons64c198.65$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d5b…6c2abacked Team Falcons67c194$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72a…5d8ebacked Team Falcons68c191$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617100%7 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Natus Vincere25c186.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.313827.5%38 W · 100 L-15.0wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere31c174.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9560542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons63c169$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.732,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Natus Vincere13c165.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.012958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe252…5f5abacked Team Falcons66c158.19$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Team Falcons67c149.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9711753%62 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82b…5211backed Natus Vincere7c141.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da7…f04bbacked Natus Vincere33c136.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Team Falcons68c130.05$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.181540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Natus Vincere34c124$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.446850%34 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Team Falcons67c122$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2680544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere32c115$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7164744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Falcons66c114.86$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5919242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…03cbbacked Team Falcons72c111.53$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.539137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b30…5bf9backed Team Falcons64c106.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.356666.7%44 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed Team Falcons79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ea…9a8cbacked Natus Vincere36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Natus Vincere33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3397142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Team Falcons68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329244.6%41 W · 51 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd56c…1cf9backed Natus Vincere40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.882254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Natus Vincere33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322845.6%104 W · 124 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Natus Vincere35c94.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8534063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Team Falcons61c93.45$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.072040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c2…3c0abacked Natus Vincere38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.21315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons60c89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.680742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Team Falcons77c85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.673158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Natus Vincere33c84.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.295841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Team Falcons67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1092…422ebacked Natus Vincere35c79.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe93f…6769backed Natus Vincere33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Team Falcons66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7621062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x106d…ccefbacked Team Falcons66c74.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25fa…041dbacked Natus Vincere19c67.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b3…507fbacked Natus Vincere35c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.73053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Team Falcons72c60.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.64264.3%27 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Natus Vincere28c57.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.244753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f0d…7e11backed Natus Vincere38c57.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf82…6c06backed Natus Vincere27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155927.1%16 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a7a…ee61backed Natus Vincere36c55.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Falcons61c53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6773743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f8…8cadbacked Natus Vincere37c51.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1866662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked Natus Vincere33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0e…9f75backed Team Falcons67c48.81$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.022245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b9…0a9bbacked Team Falcons63c48.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8510156.4%57 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf40f…8dcfbacked Team Falcons57c45.32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.341353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere38c41.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Falcons66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.631251.3%160 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Team Falcons60c32.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.965642.9%24 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae60…1f06backed Team Falcons68c30.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.611973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef87…a71dbacked Team Falcons67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.855650%28 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Team Falcons68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4110766.4%71 W · 36 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Team Falcons68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4121751.6%112 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Team Falcons68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c7…24c2backed Team Falcons80c28.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7113061.5%80 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons80c24.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8480443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Team Falcons70c21.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4312720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Team Falcons71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.09955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Team Falcons61c20.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.953461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e7…1f75backed Team Falcons76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Team Falcons68c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.127665.8%50 W · 26 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.