TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40020159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons75c4,882$3,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.3934468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere7c4,817$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2940014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere37c4,047$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.7225444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons61c3,921$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.4755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Natus Vincere37c3,907$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.0818143.6%79 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons64c3,893$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.231,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons62c3,562$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.354556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons63c3,028$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.181,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…f1bcbacked Natus Vincere25c2,767$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Falcons65c2,537$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.1220949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcff4…3609backed Natus Vincere23c2,094$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere38c2,016$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.282,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Natus Vincere28c1,413$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3928833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons60c1,375$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.091,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere38c1,250$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons62c1,203$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.161,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons59c1,000$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.380443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b9…a5b6backed Natus Vincere40c865.36$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Natus Vincere2c744.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Natus Vincere27c741.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons62c731.64$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.6447660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Natus Vincere40c699.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.996445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere38c650$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24731545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Natus Vincere40c629.64$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Falcons60c600$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23811854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Falcons60c552.38$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22214854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere40c500$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19936054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Falcons77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11532951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Falcons61c489$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18915946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons61c472.11$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons67c448.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2153844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Falcons60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16088166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere41c400$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16256848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons61c334.2$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3460349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5864149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a7a…ee61backed Natus Vincere39c305.36$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.091145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere15c302.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8392056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4854…3335backed Natus Vincere5c269.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere41c263.66$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10826957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere26c226.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.952,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons71c204$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Falcons80c193.42$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.687950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere27c189.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa03…0799backed Natus Vincere40c188.62$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.751181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8dc0…5f47backed Natus Vincere10c186$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.983943.6%17 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Falcons62c179.34$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1528549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Natus Vincere40c175$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Team Falcons61c163.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1525248.8%123 W · 129 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6119…9ae6backed Natus Vincere30c161.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Team Falcons59c129.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.312455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaed5…4a71backed Natus Vincere20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+58.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Falcons62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3853757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed Team Falcons63c99.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4158152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Team Falcons64c87.09$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0220349.8%101 W · 102 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b8…1762backed Natus Vincere30c86.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Falcons70c84.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3434063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Falcons61c84.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0124052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Team Falcons61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9721465%139 W · 75 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere41c81.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.633645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3701…ba6dbacked Natus Vincere42c79.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Natus Vincere39c79.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8410445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere39c75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Team Falcons72c71.34$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.126550.8%33 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere41c63.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9172637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x276d…1cf4backed Natus Vincere40c59.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.753026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf774…3821backed Natus Vincere40c55.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+81.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Team Falcons62c53$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9225648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Natus Vincere40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202931%9 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2022654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…8cadbacked Natus Vincere31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Falcons79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.566848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Team Falcons64c47.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.024753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd0aa…6818backed Natus Vincere42c41.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b83…9083backed Natus Vincere41c40.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Natus Vincere38c33.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.675955.9%33 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Team Falcons64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2513140.5%53 W · 78 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2608…34c1backed Team Falcons61c26.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.232356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Natus Vincere41c25.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5313946%64 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf1…47a4backed Team Falcons62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.193366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.