Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8882c71ecb12f9ba08ccee2be9f81a40e91540fc08df6483bcbb5653c34b3f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 6,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons | 75c | 4,882$3,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.39 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere | 7c | 4,817$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.29 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 4,047$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.72 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons | 61c | 3,921$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.47 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 3,907$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.08 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons | 64c | 3,893$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.23 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 62c | 3,562$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.3 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 3,028$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.18 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…f1bcbacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 2,767$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Falcons | 65c | 2,537$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.12 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…3609backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 2,094$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 2,016$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.28 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 1,413$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons | 60c | 1,375$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.09 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 1,250$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons | 62c | 1,203$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.16 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons | 59c | 1,000$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.3 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…a5b6backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 865.36$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 744.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 741.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons | 62c | 731.64$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.64 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 699.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 650$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 629.64$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Falcons | 60c | 600$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Team Falcons | 60c | 552.38$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Falcons | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Team Falcons | 61c | 489$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 61c | 472.11$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 448.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.21 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 400$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons | 61c | 334.2$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…ee61backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 305.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 302.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4854…3335backed Natus Vincere | 5c | 269.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 263.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 226.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons | 71c | 204$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Team Falcons | 80c | 193.42$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 189.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…0799backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 188.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc0…5f47backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 186$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Falcons | 62c | 179.34$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Team Falcons | 61c | 163.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…9ae6backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 161.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…63bebacked Team Falcons | 59c | 129.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 124 | 55.6%69 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…4a71backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Falcons | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Team Falcons | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Team Falcons | 64c | 87.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b8…1762backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Falcons | 70c | 84.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 84.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Team Falcons | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 81.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ba6dbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 79.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 79.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Team Falcons | 72c | 71.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 63.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…1cf4backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 59.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf774…3821backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 55.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Team Falcons | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…8cadbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Team Falcons | 64c | 47.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0aa…6818backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 41.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…9083backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 40.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 33.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Team Falcons | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Team Falcons | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 25.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Team Falcons | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.