Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ae16bf08d156d751d86a021ee61f968b4987d4ea863510470a8dd504a8a3ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 39c | 206.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 196.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 162.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 111.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 103.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 86.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 76.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 51c | 67.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 63c | 67.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 60.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 48.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 42.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…5462backed No | 34c | 42.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 74c | 40.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 50c | 38.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 43c | 37.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 35.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 34.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…fe8dbacked Yes | 55c | 31.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 48c | 30.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 45c | 30.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 57c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 24.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…ce73backed Yes | 56c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 52c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 22.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed Yes | 55c | 21.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…b788backed No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…9259backed Yes | 54c | 19.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 53c | 18.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.