Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94cddc3ad6618eff7f89ce00671a59b8808c045e6ecd3fc206099f8571885b9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Up | 2c | 3,976$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 11c | 3,533$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.54 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Up | 5c | 2,845$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Up | 1c | 2,674$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Up | 1c | 2,542$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…3fcdbacked Up | 2c | 2,381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Up | 5c | 2,282$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Up | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…1369backed Up | 4c | 1,515$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Up | 5c | 1,488$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Up | 3c | 1,262$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 17c | 1,233$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 73c | 839.94$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.06 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Up | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Up | 9c | 646.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…bd92backed Up | 5c | 643.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…ce5dbacked Up | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Up | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Up | 13c | 480.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…8f58backed Up | 2c | 424.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…e3dabacked Up | 12c | 404.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Up | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 7c | 390.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Up | 11c | 390$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 10c | 376.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Up | 4c | 350.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…cd85backed Up | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…ad93backed Up | 17c | 233.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 13c | 202$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…4623backed Up | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…e2b1backed Up | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Up | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Up | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 13c | 185.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Up | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 50c | 64.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Up | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…e55dbacked Up | 53c | 58.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Up | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Down | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…4798backed Down | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Down | 62c | 32.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…1388backed Up | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4be…e912backed Down | 60c | 19.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.