AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e7284ec921f6b251db9a051e019ee67cb775e110b2d9781a9dc5908cd78630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $442,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $368,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3167…679ebacked No | 3c | 26,165$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…e4a8backed No | 0c | 14,611$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 8c | 12,349$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.17 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 8,571$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…adb2backed No | 14c | 6,959$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked No | 9c | 6,535$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.29 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 7c | 5,983$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…0403backed No | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 7c | 4,574$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.02 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked No | 1c | 3,264$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…0c98backed No | 1c | 2,082$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed No | 2c | 1,896$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 3c | 1,882$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…9aabbacked No | 2c | 1,184$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 1c | 1,068$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…8b90backed No | 1c | 1,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 9c | 820.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 20c | 804.3$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.86 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 9c | 792.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 674$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 663.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…a30fbacked No | 15c | 615.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f9…ea74backed No | 4c | 564.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…e2a0backed No | 3c | 377.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 343.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed No | 8c | 239.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97b…600abacked No | 9c | 165.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…7776backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 7c | 149.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…45bfbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed No | 12c | 105.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 13c | 104$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked No | 10c | 102.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…3499backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 21c | 80.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
- Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.