MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94fee7215281665532178e6256d865af13fcb9b2967f0d3cd78c59eb526b3671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Giants, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Cubs | 74c | 29,517$21,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,616.87 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Giants | 33c | 14,416$4,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,709.82 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…ab5fbacked Cubs | 63c | 13,783$8,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,146.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Giants | 22c | 8,643$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.78 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Giants | 39c | 6,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.99 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…dcafbacked Giants | 39c | 4,984$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…77f5backed Giants | 37c | 4,696$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Giants | 28c | 3,974$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Giants | 25c | 1,781$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.3 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Giants | 24c | 1,580$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.66 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Giants | 26c | 1,580$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Giants | 39c | 1,303$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.53 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Giants | 32c | 1,128$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.01 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Giants | 25c | 1,008$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Cubs | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giants | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cubs | 61c | 773$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.47 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 38c | 736.08$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Giants | 38c | 650$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cubs | 60c | 546.06$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.62 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cubs | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cubs | 64c | 399$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.62 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Giants | 40c | 319.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Cubs | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Cubs | 60c | 182.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Giants | 38c | 164.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Cubs | 67c | 152$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Giants | 40c | 146.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Giants | 38c | 136$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Giants | 36c | 134.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Giants | 18c | 105.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cubs | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…bbd0backed Giants | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 59c | 51.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cubs | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Giants | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cubs | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…1d63backed Cubs | 61c | 22.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Cubs | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.