Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9507d89451e5548244fbeba166d5054ec0f491fa2946d0ad94f3f5d6652c6234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 69c | 762.16$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.89 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 275.61$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.36 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 251$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 40c | 248.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 61c | 213.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 197.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 155.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 136.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 106$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 105.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 23c | 101.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 56c | 100.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 100.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…c6adbacked No | 19c | 84.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 76.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 72c | 72.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 65c | 64.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 46c | 63.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 56.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 53.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f1…65debacked Yes | 38c | 52.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 74c | 52.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 55c | 48.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked Yes | 68c | 48.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 54c | 46.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 46.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 44.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 43.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 45c | 42.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 40.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 40.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked No | 39c | 39.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 44c | 38.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 34.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 59c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 30.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 27.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 59c | 27.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 76c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 45c | 24.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 65c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 80c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…2235backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 63c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.