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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,357 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3be5…05fabacked Yes19c3,137$605 inWon+$2,531.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes34c448.02$152 inWon+$296.2461122.7%139 W · 472 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No6c345.14$20 inLost-$20.0164624.5%158 W · 488 L-19.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No61c236$144 inLost-$144.0418166.9%121 W · 60 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8242…6577backed Yes34c199.99$68 inWon+$131.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No64c196.9$126 inLost-$126.011,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes36c165$59 inWon+$105.653548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes36c146.82$53 inWon+$93.9627241.9%114 W · 158 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c142$94 inLost-$93.725,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes41c137.61$56 inWon+$81.3914154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes44c101.61$45 inWon+$576426.6%17 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x740c…30d0backed Yes37c101.01$37 inWon+$64.011526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7c…8785backed Yes40c100$40 inWon+$601050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c91.74$54 inLost-$54.136,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed No63c87.09$55 inLost-$54.8748639.7%193 W · 293 L+21.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No57c80.86$46 inLost-$45.8918947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes32c78$25 inWon+$53.092,75729.7%819 W · 1,938 L-1.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No66c74$49 inLost-$48.836666.7%44 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No24c71.07$17 inLost-$17.31,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes29c69.61$20 inWon+$49.486,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c63.83$24 inWon+$40.25,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c61$23 inWon+$38.439,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31d…7034backed No67c50$34 inLost-$33.5862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No64c49.99$32 inLost-$3256067.1%376 W · 184 L+26.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes39c47.53$18 inWon+$29.074,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No65c47$31 inLost-$30.71,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes35c41.4$14 inWon+$26.9118722.5%42 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed Yes41c40$16 inWon+$23.89055.6%50 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4351…5463backed Yes36c40$14 inWon+$25.65837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No66c39.57$26 inLost-$26.042,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes32c37.78$12 inWon+$25.522,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes45c35.73$16 inWon+$19.6543947.6%209 W · 230 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed No61c33.02$20 inLost-$207630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5824…7307backed Yes61c30$18 inWon+$11.76068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No66c30$20 inLost-$19.812064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No67c29$19 inLost-$19.381,00470.9%712 W · 292 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x348c…8633backed No64c24$15 inLost-$15.312576%19 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No66c23.33$15 inLost-$15.41,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b55…0c2abacked No62c21.24$13 inLost-$13.084247.6%20 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-19.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No64c20.03$13 inLost-$12.8235864%229 W · 129 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No63c18.56$12 inLost-$11.7515246.1%70 W · 82 L-19.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No70c15$11 inLost-$10.556675.8%50 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.