Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb823a708f2d6c516ce9496f9b513db107894b936868c35920be3418368791a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 77c | 230$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 204.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 196.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 193.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 175$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 157$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 70c | 155.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 28c | 143.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 32c | 131.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 22c | 106.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 102.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 24c | 98.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 24c | 80.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 69.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 79c | 51.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 50.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 50.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…7034backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 75c | 34.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.